Up and Coming Suburbs in South East Melbourne, Where Growth Has Already Arrived
If you're trying to work out which South East Melbourne suburbs are worth watching, you're not alone. Whether you're stretching to your first purchase, upgrading with equity behind you, or buying an investment you'll never live in, the question is the same: where has the market actually moved?
The honest answer sits in twelve months of settled sales data. CoreLogic figures to June 2026 show a handful of suburbs across the area recording double-digit house growth and solid unit demand, while others have pulled back on thin volumes. That data is what this article is built on.
The EverLend team helps buyers across South East Melbourne identify suburbs where the numbers stack up against their borrowing position, comparing home loan options across 60+ lenders to match the right structure to the right suburb.
Key takeaways
- Balaclava and Sandringham house medians grew over 14% in twelve months.
- Every approved suburb's house median sits above the $950,000 scheme cap.
- Unit medians in seven suburbs remain under $600,000, keeping duty exemptions in reach.
Which South East Melbourne suburbs have shown the strongest growth in the last twelve months?
Balaclava, Sandringham, Elsternwick and Cheltenham are the suburbs where CoreLogic data shows the clearest forward momentum in the year to June 2026. Balaclava recorded 12-month house growth of 14.33% on 43 sales, with a median of $1,492,000. Sandringham matched that almost exactly at 14.35% on 96 sales, landing at $2,430,000. Those are statistically meaningful samples, not thin-market noise.
Source: CoreLogic (via YIP, June 2026).
What does the data actually show across different price points?
The growth picture in South East Melbourne splits cleanly by price band. At the premium end, Sandringham and Balaclava are moving on decent volumes. In the mid-range, Elsternwick house growth came in at 9.00% on 76 sales, and Cheltenham reached 8.23% on 278 sales — the largest sample in the approved list. At the affordable end, Moorabbin delivered 3.23% house growth on 80 sales with a median of $1,280,000, the lowest house median across the area.
The unit story is different and worth reading separately. Seven suburbs — St Kilda, Balaclava, Ripponlea, Prahran, Windsor, South Yarra and Oakleigh — still carry unit medians under $600,000, which keeps the Victorian first-home buyer duty exemption in reach. St Kilda units recorded 2.40% growth on 659 sales. That volume matters: it tells you the St Kilda unit market is deep and liquid.
A few headline figures deserve a note of caution. Glen Huntly houses showed 25.21% growth, but only 12 sales underpinned it. Middle Park houses moved 20.59% on 68 sales. Both look impressive; both are likely mix-shift effects rather than genuine price movement. Use them as colour, not as a basis for a purchasing decision.
What I see consistently is buyers chasing the headline growth number and missing the volume underneath it. A 20% move on twelve sales tells you almost nothing about the market. A 14% move on 96 settled transactions tells you quite a lot.
Evelyn Clark · Director, Mortgage & Finance Broker · Chat to Evelyn →
Which suburbs suit buyers at different budget levels?
The most useful way to read the growth data is against your own borrowing ceiling, not against what the suburbs are doing in isolation.
Suburbs showing momentum under $1,500,000 (houses):
- › Moorabbin:$1,280,000 median, 3.23% growth, 80 sales. The most accessible house entry point in the approved list.
- › Cheltenham:$1,298,750 median, 8.23% growth, 278 sales. Strongest sample volume in the area, solid sustained movement.
- › Balaclava:$1,492,000 median, 14.33% growth, 43 sales. The fastest-moving suburb at this price level with a reliable sample.
- › Oakleigh:$1,362,500 median, 4.81% growth, 63 sales. Steady movement on a reasonable sample, close to Djerring Trail access.
Suburbs showing momentum above $2,000,000 (houses):
- › Sandringham:$2,430,000 median, 14.35% growth, 96 sales. The most statistically convincing growth result in the premium tier.
- › Elsternwick:$2,125,500 median, 9.00% growth, 76 sales. Consistent growth on a solid volume, with the Rippon Lea Estate precinct providing a genuine character anchor.
- › Hampton:$2,425,000 median, 4.62% growth, 139 sales. Steady movement on a large sample; the Hampton Street retail strip and beach access support deep buyer demand.
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What do these medians mean for your deposit and borrowing?
Here is the practical constraint every buyer in South East Melbourne faces: every house median across all 28 approved suburbs sits above $950,000. That means the First Home Guarantee's 5% deposit structure applies only to units, not houses, anywhere in this area. The scheme's price cap is $950,000 for every approved postcode.
For unit buyers, the picture is more workable. Seven suburbs carry unit medians under $600,000, which means a Victorian first-home buyer pays zero transfer duty. Suburbs in the $600,000 to $750,000 unit median band — including Elwood at $647,000, South Melbourne at $615,000 and Cheltenham at $700,000 — fall into the partial concession range. Above $750,000 in units, no first-home concession applies.
A 20% deposit on a $1,280,000 Moorabbin house is $256,000. A 10% deposit is $128,000. Those are the real numbers a lender works with, and your borrowing capacity is assessed at approximately 9% (the APRA buffer added to the actual rate), not the rate you see advertised. The gap between what you can borrow and what a suburb costs in this area is why lender selection matters more than rate shopping.
Source: CoreLogic (via YIP, June 2026) and Housing Australia.
What should buyers consider beyond the growth figure?
Growth data tells you where a market has been over the last twelve months. It tells you nothing about where it goes next, and it is not in a broker's expertise to say. What it does tell you is which suburbs have deep buyer demand — because demand, not speculation, is what produces consistent volume-backed growth.
A few practical filters matter more than the headline percentage. Transport access is one: suburbs on the Sandringham and Frankston lines give buyers reliable connectivity, which consistently supports resale depth. Infrastructure is another: Cheltenham sits near Westfield Southland and has Suburban Rail Loop planning in its precinct, though no completion date is confirmed and no buyer should pay a premium based on a project timeline.
Character is a third filter. Elsternwick's Glen Huntly Road strip and the Rippon Lea Estate precinct give it a genuine identity that attracts owner-occupiers year after year. Moorabbin's proximity to the Kingston City Hall precinct and its industrial area pull a mixed buyer profile. These are not marketing observations — they are the factors that determine whether a suburb has repeat buyer demand across cycles, which is what actually drives long-run capital movement.
If a suburb's growth figure is backed by fewer than 20 settled sales in twelve months, treat it as colour, not evidence. This applies directly to Ripponlea houses (7 sales) and Gardenvale (7 house sales, 14 unit sales). The medians are real; the growth figures are unreliable.
When does chasing growth not make sense?
Buying into a suburb because it grew 14% last year is a reasonable instinct and a flawed strategy. Most of the buyers who drove that growth have already settled. The question is whether the conditions that produced it — limited supply, strong demand, lifestyle appeal — persist. That is a judgement, not a calculation, and it is one where the data genuinely runs out.
The more useful question is whether the suburb fits your borrowing capacity and your holding position. A suburb that has moved well but lands you at 95% LVR, with no buffer for rate changes, is a riskier position than a suburb with steadier growth where your equity is comfortable from day one. Chasing the growth number at the cost of your financial resilience is not a trade-off the data justifies.
When a buyer comes to us with a shortlist built entirely around last year's growth table, we usually start by asking which of those suburbs they could still hold comfortably if rates moved another half a percent. That question changes the shortlist more often than the data does.
Evelyn Clark · Director, Mortgage & Finance Broker · Chat to Evelyn →
How does a mortgage broker help buyers in a moving market?
The lender you use shapes the outcome here as much as the suburb you pick. Three things a broker works through that most buyers don't do for themselves:
- › LVR and which lenders price it well: two lenders may approve the same borrowing amount at different LVRs, with different LMI costs and different rate loadings above 80%.
- › Valuation sensitivity by suburb: some lenders are more conservative in their valuations on high-density postcodes or in suburbs with thin recent sales — which affects how much you can borrow against the purchase price.
- › Serviceability and income composition: which lenders count all of your income — overtime, rental income, investment returns — changes your borrowing ceiling, sometimes significantly.
Comparing across a panel of 60+ lenders finds the policy differences that a rate comparison site won't surface. Which lenders work best for your income profile and your target suburb is worth a conversation before you make an offer.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which South East Melbourne suburbs have grown the most in the past year?
Balaclava and Sandringham both recorded 14% house price growth in the twelve months to June 2026, on sales volumes large enough to be statistically meaningful. Elsternwick and Cheltenham also showed strong, well-supported growth across the same period.
Can first home buyers use the First Home Guarantee to buy in these suburbs?
Only for units — the $950,000 price cap applies across all approved postcodes in the area, and every house median in South East Melbourne sits above it. Seven suburbs have unit medians under $600,000, where a 5% deposit and no LMI is achievable under the scheme.
Are any growth figures in South East Melbourne unreliable?
Yes — several suburbs recorded fewer than 20 house sales over the year, including Ripponlea, Gardenvale and Glen Huntly. Their growth percentages reflect sales-mix shifts more than genuine price movement and should not be used as a basis for purchasing decisions.
What is the most affordable entry point in South East Melbourne right now?
Moorabbin has the lowest house median in the approved list at $1,280,000, and Cheltenham is close behind at $1,298,750. For units, Ripponlea at $470,000 and Windsor at $530,000 are the most accessible entry points with meaningful sales volumes.
Does last year's growth tell me which suburbs will grow next?
No — past growth is a record of buyer demand, not a forecast. What it reliably shows is which suburbs have deep, liquid markets. Forward price movement depends on supply, demand and broader conditions that no data set predicts reliably.
Is a mortgage broker or my own bank the better starting point for buying in South East Melbourne?
A mortgage broker, every time. Your bank offers one policy on income assessment and one LVR position. A broker compares those conditions across 60+ lenders and finds the policy that suits your income type, your deposit and your target suburb.
Your Next Steps
Choosing a suburb in South East Melbourne on growth data alone is only half the work. The other half is knowing which lenders will finance the purchase at a structure that leaves you resilient, not stretched. Those two things — the right suburb and the right loan — are worth working through together, because a lender's valuation approach and income policy can move your effective ceiling by more than a change of suburb can.
Ready to find out which lenders will work best for your situation in these suburbs? Contact the EverLend team or call 03 7036 3356. We'll canvas our 60+ lender panel and find the most suitable options for your circumstances.
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External Resources
EverLend · South East Melbourne · Ever Lend Pty Ltd (ACN 625 080 515), authorised under Australian Credit Licence 517192 · General information only - this article does not constitute financial advice. Please consider your own circumstances and seek professional advice before making any financial decisions.
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