South East Melbourne Property Market Update 2026, What Buyers Need to Know
If you've been watching the South East Melbourne property market and wondering whether the numbers you're seeing are typical, the short answer is: it depends heavily on which suburb you're looking at and whether you're chasing a house or a unit. The gap between the two has rarely mattered more for buyers here.
CoreLogic data shows house medians across the approved suburb set running from $1,280,000 in Moorabbin to $4,960,000 in Toorak, with growth figures swinging from double-digit gains to double-digit falls in the same 12-month period. Unit medians tell a different story: 22 of the 28 suburbs in this analysis sit under the $950,000 federal scheme cap, and seven sit under the $600,000 stamp duty exemption threshold.
Our team works with buyers across South East Melbourne at every price point, comparing across 60+ lenders to match the right loan structure to your situation. Understanding the home loan side of what these medians mean for your deposit is where most of the planning work happens.
Key takeaways
- Every approved suburb's house median sits above the $950,000 scheme cap.
- Unit medians in 22 of 28 suburbs remain under the cap — first-home buying here is a unit story.
- Growth figures vary sharply by suburb; thin-sale suburbs require careful interpretation.
What does the South East Melbourne property market look like right now?
South East Melbourne's property market in mid-2026 is a market of contrasts. The inner bayside and premium corridor suburbs hold some of the highest medians in the country, while the southern and middle-ring suburbs offer entry points that — by the standards of this area — are relatively accessible, particularly for unit buyers.
CoreLogic data shows the cheapest house medians in the approved suburb set belong to Moorabbin at $1,280,000 and Cheltenham at $1,298,750, both on the Frankston rail line. At the other end, Toorak's house median sits at $4,960,000, though its 12-month growth of -17.33% likely reflects a sales-mix shift rather than a broad market fall — the sample of 94 sales is real but the price range within it is wide. Brighton's house median of $3,250,000 is based on 238 sales, making it one of the more reliable figures in the premium tier.
Unit medians tell a more uniform story. From $470,000 in Ripponlea to $1,247,500 in Brighton, the range is wide — but the majority of the approved suburbs cluster between $500,000 and $750,000, which is exactly where government schemes and duty concessions start to make a material difference to what a buyer can actually afford.
Source: CoreLogic (via YIP, June 2026).
Which suburbs have seen the strongest and weakest growth?
The 12-month growth figures to June 2026 are some of the most varied this area has produced in a single reporting period, and reading them without context is a reliable way to reach the wrong conclusion.
Suburbs with notable gains
Sandringham's house median rose 14.35% to $2,430,000 on 96 sales — a solid sample that makes the figure credible. Balaclava houses rose 14.33% to $1,492,000 on 43 sales, and Elsternwick houses gained 9.00% to $2,125,500 on 76 sales. In the unit market, Caulfield units rose 26.05% to $1,200,000, though that figure rests on only 67 sales and likely reflects a mix-shift toward larger stock rather than a broad uplift. Hampton units rose 18.52% to $1,200,000 on 130 sales, which is a more reliable sample.
Suburbs with falls or flat movement
Toorak's figures — houses -17.33%, units -37.42% — are the most dramatic in the set and almost certainly reflect sales-mix effects rather than a genuine market collapse in one of the country's most tightly held suburbs. Malvern houses fell 15.01% to $2,700,000 on 112 sales; that sample is large enough to take seriously, though a concentration of smaller sales in the period could still be skewing it. Elwood houses fell 11.30% to $1,942,500 on 110 sales, and Armadale houses fell 11.48% to $2,295,000 on 77 sales.
Thin-sample suburbs to treat carefully
Ripponlea houses recorded only 7 sales, Gardenvale houses only 7, and Glen Huntly houses only 12. Glen Huntly's house growth of +25.21% should be treated as a statistical artefact of a thin sample, not a signal about that suburb's market. For any buying or lending decision, a median from fewer than 20 sales is a starting point for conversation, not a reliable valuation anchor.
We regularly see buyers treat a single 12-month growth figure as a forecast. A suburb that fell 11% on 110 house sales is having a quieter year than its recent run — not a different suburb from the one it was two years ago. The lending assessment is based on the property's current valuation, not last year's median, and those two numbers are often further apart than buyers expect.
Evelyn Clark · Director, Mortgage & Finance Broker · Chat to Evelyn →
What do these medians mean for your deposit and borrowing in South East Melbourne?
The single most important fact in this data set is one that applies uniformly across every suburb in the analysis: no house median falls below $950,000. The cheapest is Moorabbin at $1,280,000. That means every first home buyer chasing a house in South East Melbourne is buying above the federal scheme cap — no First Home Guarantee, no Family Home Guarantee, no Help to Buy on the purchase.
Units are the scheme-eligible market here. Seven suburbs have a unit median under $600,000, which is the threshold for a full stamp duty exemption in Victoria for eligible first home buyers: St Kilda at $512,000, Balaclava at $591,500, Ripponlea at $470,000, Prahran at $500,000, Windsor at $530,000, South Yarra at $525,000, and Oakleigh at $580,000. A further 15 suburbs sit between $600,000 and $750,000, landing in the partial concession band.
What a 20% deposit looks like across the range:
- › Moorabbin house $1,280,000:$256,000 deposit · above cap · standard loan only
- › Cheltenham unit $700,000:$140,000 at 20% · or $35,000 at 5% via First Home Guarantee · full duty exemption applies
- › St Kilda unit $512,000:$102,400 at 20% · or $25,600 at 5% via First Home Guarantee · under the $600,000 duty exemption threshold
- › Brighton house $3,250,000:$650,000 at 20% · no government schemes apply · prestige lending conditions
The assessment rate lenders apply sits at approximately 9% — the actual rate plus the APRA 3.0% serviceability buffer. That buffer is unchanged and applies to every new loan, whether the purchase is a $500,000 unit or a $3,000,000 house.
Source: CoreLogic (via YIP, June 2026) and Housing Australia.
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Which suburbs suit which buyer types right now?
The medians point clearly toward different buyer groups depending on the suburb cluster. This is not a market where one profile fits all — the right suburb depends on your budget, your loan structure, and whether government schemes form part of your strategy.
Best-value entry for first home buyers:
- › St Kilda units $512,000: under the $600,000 duty exemption · First Home Guarantee eligible · 659 unit sales — the deepest market in the set
- › Prahran units $500,000: same duty exemption eligibility · 261 sales · Sandringham line access via Prahran station
- › Moorabbin houses $1,280,000: lowest house median in the set · above the scheme cap · Frankston line at Moorabbin station
- › Cheltenham units $700,000: in the partial duty concession band · 275 sales · Westfield Southland nearby
Established and upsizing buyers:
- › Sandringham houses $2,430,000:+14.35% growth on 96 sales · Sandringham station terminus · suits equity-rich upsizers
- › Hampton houses $2,425,000:+4.62% on 139 sales · reliable growth pattern · Hampton station access
- › Elsternwick houses $2,125,500:+9.00% on 76 sales · Sandringham line at Elsternwick station · suits downsizers moving from larger houses
- › Glen Iris houses $2,460,000:+2.39% on 223 sales · large, reliable sample · Glen Waverley line at Glen Iris and Gardiner stations
Premium and prestige:
- › Brighton houses $3,250,000: 238 sales — the most liquid prestige market in the set · no government schemes apply
- › Middle Park houses $3,075,000:+20.59% on 68 sales · treat growth with caution given sample size · Albert Park Lake precinct
- › Toorak houses $4,960,000: highest median in the set · growth figure unreliable due to mix-shift · Heyington station on the Glen Waverley line
What government schemes are available to buyers in this market?
Three federal schemes matter here, and their usefulness depends entirely on whether you're buying a house or a unit — because the price cap puts every house in this market outside their reach.
The schemes worth knowing:
- › First Home Guarantee: 5% deposit, no LMI, no income test · $950,000 cap across all approved suburbs · units only in this market
- › Family Home Guarantee: 2% deposit, single parents · same $950,000 cap · no first home buyer status required
- › Help to Buy: federal shared equity, up to 30% government contribution · income caps $103,000 single / $165,000 joint (2026-27) · $950,000 cap applies
- › Victorian First Home Owner Grant:$10,000 for new homes only · $750,000 price cap · an off-the-plan unit story in South East Melbourne
There is no open Victorian state shared-equity scheme for new applicants. The Victorian Homebuyer Fund is closed. Help to Buy is the only shared-equity pathway currently available to South East Melbourne buyers.
On stamp duty: Victoria's first home buyer concession provides a full exemption at or under $600,000 and a partial concession up to $750,000. The off-the-plan temporary concession — available to all buyers including investors, on strata apartments and units — applies to contracts signed before 21 April 2027.
Source: Housing Australia and State Revenue Office Victoria.
When does the current market data not support the decision you're planning?
Reading a median as a valuation is the most common planning error we see. A median tells you what the middle sale in a suburb cost over 12 months — it does not tell you what the specific property you're buying is worth, and lenders base their assessment on a formal valuation, not the suburb median.
In a market where growth figures are swinging between +25% and -37% in the same reporting period, anchoring a purchase strategy to growth figures is riskier than it looks. The double-digit gains in some suburbs likely reflect mix shifts — more large houses selling in one period — and the double-digit falls almost certainly do too. A suburb that appears to have fallen 11% on a solid sample may simply have had fewer trophy sales than the prior year.
For investors, the negative gearing landscape has changed materially. Negative gearing on established residential property purchased after 7:30pm AEST on 12 May 2026 will be restricted from 1 July 2027 — losses will be quarantined rather than immediately deductible against other income. New builds remain exempt. This does not affect property held before that date, but it changes the calculus for anyone buying an established rental now. The right conversation to have is with your accountant about your own position, not a general assumption that gearing treatment is the same as it was.
Where a client is buying an established property as a rental and is counting on negative gearing to make the numbers work, we'd be having a detailed conversation with their accountant before we submit anything. The lending is the straightforward part right now — the tax treatment from July 2027 is where I'd want clarity first.
Evelyn Clark · Director, Mortgage & Finance Broker · Chat to Evelyn →
How does a mortgage broker help buyers navigate this market in South East Melbourne?
The lender choice matters more in a varied market than in a stable one. Three things differ between lenders in ways that directly affect what a South East Melbourne buyer can do right now.
- › Valuation approach: some lenders order desktop valuations, others send a valuer to the property — in a suburb with a wide price range and a thin sale sample, the method changes the outcome
- › High-density postcode policy: some lenders cap LVR on units in postcodes they classify as high-density — knowing which lenders apply those restrictions before you apply matters
- › APRA DTI cap position: from 1 February 2026, lenders cannot write more than 20% of new lending at a debt-to-income ratio of 6x or higher — a lender close to its cap for the quarter may decline a file another would approve
Comparing across a 60+ lender panel finds which of these differences matter for your specific purchase. That is the practical work a broker does that a single lender conversation cannot.
What should South East Melbourne buyers watch in the months ahead?
The RBA cash rate sits at 4.60% as of 30 September 2026, with the next decision due 3 November 2026. Movement in either direction changes the assessment rate lenders apply, which shifts borrowing capacity across the market. A 0.25% rate cut, where it flows through to lender products, moves a meaningful amount of borrowing power for buyers already close to their serviceability ceiling.
The off-the-plan duty concession for strata apartments — available to all buyers including investors — ends for contracts entered on or after 21 April 2027. For buyers considering an off-the-plan unit purchase in South East Melbourne, the timing of contract exchange is a real financial consideration, not a detail. The concession allows the construction cost component to be deducted from the dutiable value, which on a significant build can reduce duty materially.
For investors specifically, the negative gearing restriction commencing 1 July 2027 is the structural change worth understanding now, while decisions are still being made, not after contracts are exchanged.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can first home buyers use the First Home Guarantee to buy in South East Melbourne?
Yes, but only for units — every house median in the approved suburbs sits above the $950,000 cap. Units in St Kilda, Prahran, Windsor, South Yarra and Oakleigh all sit under the cap and are genuinely scheme-eligible.
Is the Victorian Homebuyer Fund still available to South East Melbourne buyers?
No. The Victorian Homebuyer Fund is closed to new participants. The only shared-equity pathway currently available is the federal Help to Buy scheme, subject to income caps of $103,000 for singles and $165,000 for joint applicants.
Does negative gearing still apply to investment properties bought in South East Melbourne today?
Yes until 30 June 2027 — but established residential property purchased after 12 May 2026 will have losses quarantined from 1 July 2027 rather than immediately deductible. New builds remain exempt. Speak to your accountant about how this applies to your position.
How does the off-the-plan duty concession work for South East Melbourne unit buyers?
The temporary strata concession lets buyers deduct construction costs incurred after the contract date from the dutiable value, reducing the duty payable. It applies to contracts entered before 21 April 2027 and is available to all buyers, including investors.
Should South East Melbourne buyers wait for a rate cut before purchasing?
Market timing is outside a broker's expertise and outside the scope of what this article covers. What is worth knowing is that the assessment rate moves with the cash rate, so a cut would improve serviceability — but your own purchase readiness and lender position are what actually determine timing.
Is a mortgage broker or going direct to a lender better for buying in South East Melbourne?
A mortgage broker, every time. In a market where lender valuation policies, high-density postcode restrictions and DTI cap positions differ materially between lenders, comparing across a panel finds outcomes a single lender conversation cannot.
Your Next Steps
The South East Melbourne property market in mid-2026 rewards buyers who understand exactly where they stand before they start bidding. House prices here have moved past the point where government schemes make a material difference unless you're buying a unit — which changes both the strategy and the lender selection. Whether you're a first home buyer targeting a scheme-eligible unit, an upsizer with equity looking at Sandringham or Hampton, or an investor rethinking the established-property calculus before July 2027, the loan structure and lender choice are decisions worth getting right before you sign anything.
If you'd like a clear picture of where you stand in this market, the next step is a conversation. Get in touch with the EverLend team or call 03 7036 3356. We'll work through where you stand across our 60+ lender panel.
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External Resources
EverLend · South East Melbourne · Ever Lend Pty Ltd (ACN 625 080 515), authorised under Australian Credit Licence 517192 · General information only - this article does not constitute financial advice. Please consider your own circumstances and seek professional advice before making any financial decisions.
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